Posts Tagged ‘predictive’

Is it Possible to Predict Deaths from Prostate Cancer Before Age 50?

Friday, April 26th, 2013


A new report in the British Medical Journal concluded that nearly 50% of all prostate cancer deaths can be predicted before the age of 50. . Researchers reviewed data on over 21,000 men aged 27 to 52 between 1974 and 1984 who were taking part in a long term study in Sweden.   A previous study found that the PSA level at age 60 is strongly predictive of the risk of death from prostate cancer by age 85. .

In this study they focused their study on men close to age 40, mid-to-late forties (45-49) and early to mid fifties (51-55), ] All gave a blood sample, and a smaller group were invited to provide a second blood sample about six years later. Of this group 4922 or 72% comp0lied.

They found that within 30 years, 44% of prostate cancer deaths happened among those in the top 10% of PSA levels between the ages of 45-49. Individuals in this group were at over 10 times greater¬† risk of death when compared to those with the lowest PSA levels. They also found the risk of developing metastatic prostate cancer within 15 years is close to three-fold higher for men in the top PSA level at age 45-49 and close to ten fold higher at age 51-55. This suggests that initiating PSA screening after age 50 would leave a significant proportion of men with an elevated risk of later being diagnosed with incurable prostate cancer. They also found a low metastatic cancer risk for those with the lowest PSA level and said screening intervals of less than five years for these men is unnecessary. They concluded that PSA levels are informative of current risk of prostate cancer and also predictive of future risk of prostate cancer.They said screening p0rograms can “reduce the risk of over diagnosis while still enabling early cancer detection for me at the highest risk of death from prostate cancer.”¬† And the best way is to determine the risk by a single PSA test before age 50.

Is there a Gene Signature to Predict Malignancy and Risk of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer?

Friday, January 13th, 2012

New Research published in a recent issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute concluded that the malignancy-risk gene signature was associated with overall survival (OS) and was also a prognostic and predictive indicator for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). . The gene signature has also been useful in predicting breast cancer risk and consists of numerous proliferative genes.
In their research, they hypothesized that the malignancy-risk gene signature would have high prognostic and predictive value for early stage NSCLC. They studied the hypothesis by using 3 different NSCLC microarray datasets ranging in number from 117 to 442. An overall malignancy risk score was generated by principal component analysis to determine the prognostic and predictive value of the signature using 2 sided statistical tests.
The malignancy-risk gene signature was statistically associated with overall survival (OS) at the .001 level for the NSCLC patients. Validation with the two additional datasets demonstrated that the malignancy-risk score had prognostic and predictive values. Of the patients not receiving chemotherapy (ACT) those with a low malignancy-risk score had increased overall survival compared with those having a high malignancy-risk score at the .007 level of probability and at the .01 level for the two independent data sets.
The researchers concluded that “the malignancy-risk gene signature was associated with OS and was a prognostic and predictive indicator.”